WITH REPRESSION silencing most street protests for the moment as hardliners tighten their grip, is a democratic transformation--or revolutionary change--possible in Iran?
Lee Sustar begins at the revolution of 1979, when US-backed dictator, the Shah of Iran, was forced to flee the country, mainly due to general striked throughout Iran. Factory councils were initially set up but power centered around the clergy and middle-class and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The left was quickly divided and violently smashed and the 1980 invasion of Iran by Iraq backed by the United States allowed Khomeini and the clerics to consolidate power.
[In the post-revolutionary era] divisions broke out roughly into three camps: an Islamist left, which maintained some of the social rhetoric of the revolution; an Islamist right, based around the most conservative clergy; and a pragmatic right dominated by clerics who were close to, or had become part of, big business interests. Over the next two decades, these factions would clash over how Iran should engage with the world, economically, politically and culturally.
The Islamic left took power during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88 with Mir Hussein Mousavi becoming prime minister. Mousavi justified social policies on religious grounds, saying "the way of Islam is to attend to social justice." After the war and Khomeini's death, factional struggles came into the open and cleric Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani eliminated the office of prime minister and was elected president. Ali Khamanei became the supreme leader replacing Khomeini. Despite his attemps to engage the West, workers' standards of living declined and lead to riots and repression.
Rafsanjani completed his two alotted terms as president and aligned himself with the Islamic left, who after the fall of the Soviet Union shifted toward pro-market, neoliberal policies. Reformist candidate Mohammad Khatami won the 1997 presidential election, but the Islamic right, with their support from Khamanei controlled the majority of the government. Students in the pro-democracy movement had no support from the president and workers suffered under privatization and deregulation. In addition the clerics' Guardian Council, which approves candidates in office, barred many reformers from running in parliamentary elections.
To counter the mortal threat from Khatami's reform program the right built up networks of former Revolutionary Guards and the basij. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose political connections as well as those with the basij became the right's candidate for the 2005 presidential election, then being mayor if Tehran. With Khamanei's support, and suspected voter fraud, Ahmadinejad one the post. He put himself forward as a populist against Rafsanjani who was seen as the cause for Iran's economic turmoil. Once in office Ahmadinejad embraced privatization, but on a model based on Russia and Eastern Europe, where entrepreneurs are able to create huge private monopolies from former state assets. These assets would go to allies of Ahmadinejad threatning Rafsanjani and the existing capitalist class in Iran.
Rafsanjani supported his old rival Mousavi to counter Ahmadinejad and Khamanei. At the same time the economic and social liberal position of Mousavi gave him backing of young people and the working class. The election took place, Ahmadinajad won and we are where we are today.
For those in the Bay Area, there is a huge rally planned for Saturday July 25th in front of San Francisco city hall. I'll post more as I get information. For now check the Bay Area for Iran group on Facebook.
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